BSkyB Faces Slowing Growth

Thoughts on Carrier Evolution (Jan 31 2012) Business Models , Marketing

1. BSkyB has been a major player in the United Kingdom subscription TV market for decades. But BSkyB faces a maturation of its base business, as do all other video entertainment and communications providers in Europe, North America and elsewhere. 

    

    “The company made a number of announcements which confirm that, beyond the near term slowdown, structural issues are looming,” Bernstein analyst Claudio Aspesi argues.

    

   “While we believe the pay TV business is inherently more defensive than advertising-funded ones, the depth and length of the downturn in the U.K. economy are still unknown: any significant changes to our forecasts for the UK TV ad market could be large enough to change the outlook for the stock.”

    

   Structural change is another way of saying that saturated markets and greater amounts of competition are eroding the growth potential for virtually all big communications or entertainment businesses. 

    

    

   According to analysts at Ovum, global service provider revenues grew seven percent in 2011. On a global basis, service provider revenues will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9 percent over the 2010-2017 period, down from the historic CAGR of 6.3 percent achieved in 2004 to 2010, according to analysts at Ovum.
   
   The Ovum forecast shows the deceleration of revenue, even despite newer products such as mobile broadband.

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